COVID: new projections with loosened social isolation
The New York Times just published new mathematical models that suggest the Covid-19 cases and deaths will rise at an accelerated rate after the current easing of social distancing measures in many states (see https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5 ) Details: -- the Trump administration forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month (up from 25,000 daily currently) with 3000 deaths on June 1 (practically double the current number of 1750) -- Trump himself said 2 days ago that the deaths in the US could reach 100,000, twice as many as he said 2 weeks ago, and still considerably less than predicted by his own administration -- the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington ((frequently cited by the White House) is now projecting 134,475 deaths in the US through early August (ranging from 95,092-242,890), reflecting the easing of social distancing and rising mobility ...